Article for you
Adviser Soapbox
ETFs For The Dollar's Decline
Carlton Delfeld, Chartwell Advisor 05.09.06, 6:00 AM ET
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><SCRIPT src="http://www.forbes.com/boxes/forbesnewsletters.js"></SCRIPT><!--alternating row box--><STYLE>.boxIDhead { background-color: #336699; color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; padding:2px;}.boxIDborder { border:1px solid #003366;}.boxIDbordercolor { background-color: #336699;}.boxIDrow { background-color: #ffffff;}.boxIDrow1 { background-color: #ffffff;}.boxIDrow2 { background-color: #efefef;}.boxIDrule { background-color: #cccccc;}.boxIDspace { background-color: #ffffff;}</STYLE><TABLE class=boxIDborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=170 border=0><TBODY><TR class=boxIDrow1 vAlign=center><TD>
http://www.newsletters.forbes.com/D...tion=DisplayMainPage&SiteID=es_764&pgm=241400</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!--/alternating row box-->
<TABLE class=boxborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width=170 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=whitetxt bgColor=#003399 colSpan=3>
Related Quotes</TD></TR><TR><TD class=mainlink noWrap align=left>
EWA</TD><TD class=mainsubindexarttxt noWrap align=right>22.73</TD><TD class=smallgreen noWrap align=right>+ 0.02</TD></TR><TR><TD noWrap align=middle colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR><TD class=mainlink noWrap align=left>
EWC</TD><TD class=mainsubindexarttxt noWrap align=right>25.30</TD><TD class=smallred noWrap align=right>- 0.18</TD></TR><TR><TD noWrap align=middle colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR><TD class=mainlink noWrap align=left>
EWO</TD><TD class=mainsubindexarttxt noWrap align=right>34.42</TD><TD class=smallgreen noWrap align=right>+ 0.02</TD></TR><TR><TD noWrap align=middle colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR><TD class=mainlink noWrap align=left>
EZA</TD><TD class=mainsubindexarttxt noWrap align=right>123.99</TD><TD class=smallred noWrap align=right>- 0.64</TD></TR><TR><TD noWrap align=middle colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR><TD class=mainlink noWrap align=left>
FXE</TD><TD class=mainsubindexarttxt noWrap align=right>128.64</TD><TD class=smallgreen noWrap align=right>+ 0.65</TD></TR><TR><TD noWrap align=middle colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR><TD class=mainlink noWrap align=left>
SPY</TD><TD class=mainsubindexarttxt noWrap align=right>131.25</TD><TD class=smallred noWrap align=right>- 1.30</TD></TR><TR><TD noWrap align=middle colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext noWrap align=right colSpan=3><!--15 min quote delay--></TD></TR><TR><TD noWrap align=middle colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR><TD noWrap bgColor=#003399 colSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><FORM name=smartQuoteBox onsubmit="return boxSubmitTicker();"><TD><INPUT size=6 name=tickerInput></TD><TD align=right><INPUT type=submit value="get quotes"></TD></FORM></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<SCRIPT src="http://images.forbes.com/boxes/popstories.js"></SCRIPT><!--alternating row box--><STYLE>.boxIDhead { background-color: #003399; color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; padding:2px;}.boxIDborder { border:1px solid #003399;}.boxIDbordercolor { background-color: #003399;}.boxIDrow { background-color: #ffffff;}.boxIDrow1 { background-color: #ffffff;}.boxIDrow2 { background-color: #efefef;}.boxIDrule { background-color: #cccccc;}.boxIDspace { background-color: #ffffff;}</STYLE><TABLE class=boxIDborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=170 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=boxIDhead>Most Popular Stories</TD></TR><TR><TD class=boxIDbordercolor height=1></TD></TR><TR class=boxIDrow1 vAlign=center><TD></TD></TR><TR class=boxIDrow2 vAlign=center><TD class=boxtext>
Most Expensive Zip Codes </TD></TR><TR class=boxIDrow1 vAlign=center><TD class=boxtext>
How Much Home $1 Million Buys </TD></TR><TR class=boxIDrow2 vAlign=center><TD class=boxtext>
Best Places To Go To Prison </TD></TR><TR class=boxIDrow1 vAlign=center><TD class=boxtext>
The Most Reliable Cars 2006 </TD></TR><TR class=boxIDrow2 vAlign=center><TD class=boxtext>
15 Ways To Live Longer </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!--/alternating row box-->
</TD><TD>
</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. - After a year when higher American interest rates helped stem pressure on the U.S. dollar, the currency is losing ground around the world. U.S. policy makers and investors are scrambling to cope with what may be a long period of dollar weakness.
<TABLE width=140 align=right type="variable"><TBODY><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD>
This American IT outsourcing company does most of its work in India. It could double again in the next 18 months? Click here for details in Chartwell Advisor. http://www.newsletters.forbes.com/</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>You don't have to go far to see evidence of the declining greenback. Just look to Canada, whose currency is at a 20-year high to the U.S. dollar. After bottoming out at 62 cents in 2002, the Canadian dollar, known as the "loonie," has climbed to 90 cents. And some are predicting parity before long.
It doesn't take an economist to understand this change of fortunes. While the U.S. is running enormous budget and trade deficits, Canada has recorded 10 straight years of balanced federal budgets, has one of the world's lowest national debts relative to gross domestic product and, of course, is benefiting greatly from high commodity and energy prices.
Special Offer: Central and Eastern Europe are becoming global financial hubs. Click here for a trio of European country funds poised for second-quarter capital gains with steady income for the rest of 2006. Details in this issue of Chartwell Advisor.
Not surprisingly, Canadian stocks have trounced the performance of their neighbors to the south. The exchange-traded
iShares MSCI Canada Index (amex:
EWC -
news -
people ) is up 47% over the last 12 months, compared with a 13% gain for the
SPDRs (amex:
SPY -
news -
people ), which track the S&P 500 Index.
After showing some strength in 2005, the U.S. dollar is also losing ground against the euro, declining from 0.79 euros to 0.82 euros during the last month But it is in Asia that the U.S. dollar faces its greatest challenge.
Pimco guru and bond-fund manager Bill Gross, in his May Investment Outlook, titled, "As GM Goes, So Goes the Nation," advises investors to sell some U.S. assets and look at lower-cost, faster-growing countries in Asia that have higher savings and investment rates. Gross is on to something.
Also, the finance ministers of Japan, China and South Korea recently issued a statement announcing "immediate launching of discussions on the road map for a system to coordinate foreign exchange policy" and for the further study of a common currency unit.
Special Offer: Is Intel, at near $19, too cheap to last or still above what the chipmaker is worth? How about AMD? Which one should you buy? Click here for guidance in the Prudent Speculator TechValue Report.
While I am certainly not as fatalistic as Gross about the prospects for the American economy, since I started to publishing
The New Global Investor in early 2003, I have called for investors to have an Asian tilt in their global portfolios.
Since exchange-traded funds are not hedged against currency fluctuations, they are excellent investment tools to benefit not only from the appreciation of stocks held inside the ETF basket, but also from currency appreciation relative to the U.S. dollar.
Here are a few examples: The
iShares MSCI Austria Index (amex:
EWO -
news -
people ) is up 57% over the past year;
South Africa (amex:
EZA -
news -
people ) is up 70%;
Australia (amex:
EWA -
news -
people ) has advanced 36%;
Sweden (amex:
EWD -
news -
people ) is up 39%; and
Singapore (amex:
EWS -
news -
people ) is up 21%.
Another more direct currency play is the
Rydex Euro Currency Trust (nyse:
FXE -
news -
people ), which benefits from a stronger euro and has an annual fee of only 0.30%. It also pays a 1.9% dividend.
Special Offer: Smart money is betting on higher prices in the next six months for these alternative-energy players. Click for details in Block Traders Oil & Gold Monitor.
What does America need to do to keep the dollar strong and to maintain its premier status as a global-reserve currency? First, show some fiscal discipline. President
George W. Bush should follow through on his veto threat if the $109 billion spending measure approved by the U.S. Senate passes the House. We have to start somewhere.
The markets would also appreciate some sort of movement on entitlement reform because entitlements account for 79% of the national budget. In addition, nothing would help stir American innovation, growth and investment more than a flat tax.
A weaker U.S. dollar directly translates into a lower standard of living for Americans. It may be seen by some as a way to spur exports and economic growth, but in the, end a softer currency leads to woe.
Let's make the tough fiscal choices now and avoid relying on growth-choking higher interest rates alone to defend the value of the U.S. dollar.
Carlton Delfeld is head of the global advisory firm Chartwell Partners and editor of Chartwell Advisor.
He served as a director on the executive board of the Asian Development Bank during the Administration of President George H. W. Bush, and he is the author of The New Global Investor.
Click here for more analysis from Delfeld or to subscribe to Chartwell Advisor.